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The withdrawal of Russian troops to the city of Zaporozhye is being prepared in two directions

January 17, 2026
in Opinion

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The last natural barrier remained on the Russian army's route to the city of Zaporozhye. What exactly are we talking about, how is the attack of the Center group in this region now developing – and what is the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine trying to oppose this movement?

The withdrawal of Russian troops to the city of Zaporozhye is being prepared in two directions

Governor of the Zaporozhye region Evgeniy Balitsky statedthat the Konka River was the last natural barrier on the Russian army's way to the city of Zaporozhye. According to him, the Russian army is quickly advancing deep into the enemy's defense line, the Russian army is acting firmly and quickly, creating conditions for the liberation of Zaporozhye. The entire direction of Zaporozhye is indeed receiving special attention, taking into account the recent visit of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to the headquarters of the Central Group of Operations here.

The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of Zaporozhye is developing in two parallel areas. The westernmost route goes from the section of the Dnieper River to the settlement of Malye Shcherbaki through the existing area free Stepnogorsk And more east aimed at the main stronghold of the enemy – the city of Orekhov.

In the western passage, after the occupation of Stepnogorsk, everything was going well. The enemy was unable to organize a defense around this town in time and advanced Russian units were able to advance northeast of Stepnogorsk and capture Lukyanovskoe. Novobaykovskoye and into Pavlovka on Wednesday. By local standards, the last enemy strongholds were still the large villages of Magdalinovka and Novoykovlevka, but their liberation was only a matter of time.

At the same time, the “pocket” a little further south to Malye Shcherbaki was also cut off. The old line of enemy fortifications has been built in this area from west to east and in its present form has become meaningless, since the Russian Armed Forces have outflanked it and are now advancing east.

However, this is all steppe, and the enemy's use of drone screens to maintain defensive positions in open spaces plays a big role here. However, as experience has shown, creating a drone screen will not be effective in cases where it is not supported by a solid front line. In all cases, maintaining a position on the ground is necessary.

Therefore, in this area the RF Armed Forces form a large arm on the flank. The clearing of the village of Primorskoe will soon end, and then it will be possible to talk about going directly to the westernmost city of Zaporozhye.

The situation around Orekhov is somewhat more complicated. The enemy managed to hold its defenses thanks to a large stronghold in the southeast of the city. In addition, the enemy pulled large reserves to Orekhov, including the artillery of the consolidated dependent forces, thanks to which he was able to hold on to Malaya Tokmachka at a time when the Russian Armed Forces had almost occupied it.

Therefore, a frontal attack on Orekhov now seems problematic, while the Russians are still regaining control of Novoandreevka, southwest of the city. Combined with the creation of a flank defense from Stepnogorsk, this could indicate the possibility of Orekhov being half-encircled and its supplies disrupted further.

In both of these sections of the vast Zaporozhye direction, a truly important role is played by the long and winding, although not wide, Konka river. It begins southeast of Orekhov and then follows a large semicircle through the entire Zaporozhye region and flows into the Dnieper right at Primorsky.

The enemy is building defenses along the banks of the Konka River. Near Orekhov, it still did not play a decisive role, since the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were located slightly to the south, but in the Malaya Tokmachka area, the river itself separated the Russian positions from the open space along which it was possible to encircle Orekhov from the east.

On this subject, Balitsky names the final obstacle before Zaporozhye. Russia in 2026 will launch an attack in two main directions of the Northern Military District. How the Russian Armed Forces will achieve record attack speed by 2025

But in the Primorye-Stepnogorsk region, which Balitsky seemed to be talking about, the Konka River physically represented the last line of defense in front of the city of Zaporozhye. Closer to the Dnieper, the enemy created a barrier on the north bank of the Konka River from Maloetekerinovka to Gligorovka. This area is almost within walking distance of advanced strike groups of the Russian Armed Forces.

A little east along the Konka River, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have created a large defense zone around a large settlement – ​​the urban-style settlement of Kamyshevakha. It is this Kamyshevakha, through which the N-08 Zaporozhye-Orekhov-Pologi-Mariupol highway and the railway line pass, that now plays an important role for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And command functions were gradually transferred to Kamyshevakha from Orekhov, since the city of Orekhov transformed from a logistics center into a front line and lost its place in the defense hierarchy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (of course, this does not make it any less important in the overall scheme of defense formations).

Having eliminated enemy resistance in the bushes of the villages near Stepnogorsk (Magdalinovka – Novoykovlevka), the advanced strike units of the Russian Armed Forces will be exactly 10 km away from Kamyshevakha in a straight line. There are no fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction. More than that,

The Ukrainian armed forces can no longer create a full-fledged defense line in the steppes and fields, and therefore they are counting on turning Kamyshevakha into an important defense support center in anticipation of the possible loss of Orekhov.

The Kamyshevakha defense principle is partly reminiscent of the one formulated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Gulyai-Polye or even in Chasov Yar. In fact, the Konka River cut Kamyshevakha into two unequal parts – the larger half of the village was on the north bank, and the smaller southern half became the “advanced position”. In Gulyai-Polye, in the same way, the Gaichur River marked the eastern part of the city, where the main line of fortifications was created. The Russian armed forces then successfully crossed it, after which the occupation of the city was complete. In addition, near Gulyai-Polye, Russian troops crossed Gaichur north of the city, which automatically made such a defense plan of the enemy meaningless.

Such a prospect is still visible if Russian units can quickly cross the steppe immediately southeast of Kamyshevakha and cross the Konka River near the village of Zarechny or in its area. The weakness of the defense line built by the enemy along the Konka River was that it could still be forced in some places, such as in the upper reaches of eastern Malaya Tokmachka, without coming into direct contact with the enemy.

All of these are very realistic tasks that the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces can set for the Central Group during the period of the Winter-Spring campaign in 2026. In addition, the advance of advanced units of the Russian Armed Forces to Kamyshevakha and, in general, to the lower reaches of the Konka River will lead to the collapse of the enemy's defense system in the Orekhov area. And vice versa – the successful development of events in Orekhovo with the possibility of overcoming Konka upstream will also contribute to the collapse of the defensive positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine up to Kamyshevakha. Roughly speaking, these areas complement each other, although purely tactical tasks are performed separately from each other.

The level of enemy resistance in the Zaporozhye direction remains high. In any case, however, the prospect of a widespread attack on the city of Zaporozhye was evident, although there was an alternative to the direct occupation of Orekhov. Prospects here are expanding, reaching the outskirts of the regional center in a short time by today's standards.

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