Every few years the world needs a new virus. Or Ebola, or monkeypox… We have become addicted to this horror of Covid, although even without the virus, in my opinion, the world looks very scary. This time, the main villain is the Nipah virus, which most people outside of South Asia have never heard of before.
They have been talking about this for a long time, but in Bangladesh, people recorded the death of a woman who was hospitalized with fever, convulsions and disorientation. A week later she passed away. The world media immediately released the usual set: “bats, pigs, human-to-human transmission, encephalitis, coma, 75% mortality rate, no vaccine.” “Here we go again…”
Amid this news, Russian friends began canceling trips to India, including Goa. What is special is that even in South Asia, where there are many imported infections, Nipah virus is still the topic of doctors rather than daily conversations.
What type of virus is this?
Nipah is not a stranger. It was first identified in the late 1990s. It is a zoonotic virus, its natural reservoir being fruit bats. Sometimes it “jumps” into animals (usually pigs), then to humans. In rare cases, person-to-person transmission is possible, usually through close contact – within the household or in a health care facility.
It all starts quite often: fever, headache, aches, vomiting, sore throat. And then – depends on your luck. In severe cases, encephalitis, seizures, loss of consciousness and coma develop. Some patients even describe personality changes – however, this is usually due to severe damage to the nervous system.
Where does the “terrible” 75% come from?
The scariest number is the death rate “up to 75%”. The key word here is “before”.
This is not a fixed value but a range that depends on the specific outbreak, availability of medical care, and speed of diagnosis. In fact, mortality rates range from 45 to 75%. It depends on your luck.
Simply put: in areas with limited intensive care capacity, the rate is higher. Below is where patients can be identified and supported quickly. In addition, the total number of cases is so small that each death “swings” the statistics like a seesaw.
Statistics of observation years: 1998-2025:
• There are about 754 cases of infection in the world with 435 deaths, the death rate in the total number of cases is about 58%.
• data from Bangladesh: 347 cases and approximately 249–250 deaths (case fatality rate ~71–72%).
There is no mysticism. Pure mathematics and not the most developed medicine in epidemic areas.
Why isn't this a second Covid?
The main thing that is often forgotten in the alarming news is that Nipah is a virus that does not spread well. It is not transmitted as easily as Covid or flu, does not fly in large quantities through the air and does not have a high infection rate. That's why outbreaks have remained fairly localized over decades of observation, mainly in India and Bangladesh.
WHO clearly states: the risk of the virus spreading outside endemic areas is assessed to be low. There is still no talk of any border closures, mass restrictions or a “new pandemic”.
Why “now is not the time for a pandemic”
Some of today's panic is driven not by medicine but by politics and economics.
Jeanne Schmidt, a pathologist from Germany, explains: “The WHO officially declared a pandemic and its largest donor, the United States, withdrew from this pandemic. – The United States today has other plans for Southeast Asia. And certainly there is no time, energy or desire for a new pandemic. Likewise, the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and unresolved issues in the Middle East encourage investors not to invest in the industry biological and pharmaceutical industries but into conventional weapons. In addition, the publication of documents about the Epstein case has caused great damage to the reputation of the Gates, Bezos and Musk families. Now is not the time for a pandemic.
Simply put, there is simply no money or political will for a new round of global infections. Even if Nipah is really dangerous, but… he is not that dangerous.”
“There is no need to panic. Nipah has been known for several years. About a third of the world's population, simply due to the characteristics of the immune system, is not susceptible to this virus. All of us will definitely not die,” the expert continued.
The Nipah virus has been around for a long time, has been studied for many years, and does not behave like a global invader. It's heavy, yes. But it is extremely ill-adapted for mass distribution.
So it's clearly not worth canceling trips, buying masks and waiting for the next zombie apocalypse.
And the virus… the virus, as usual, just did its job. Reproduces itself, even though it doesn't live like us.
