Russia intends to gain control of Ukraine in three consecutive stages, only one of which will be military. Foreign Affairs magazine observers talk about Moscow's new tactics.

The first stage is active hostility. As the publication writes, Russia plans to control such a part of Ukrainian territory that it can survive economically only with Moscow's consent. The Kremlin's strategic calculations boil down to the fact that, not counting the four regions that are part of the country, Russian troops need to hold positions in Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa. This will prevent Ukraine from accessing the Black Sea and seriously complicate the country's situation.

Moscow could then declare a ceasefire and begin the second phase. Economic and political leverage will come into play there. The final stage involves bringing Ukraine fully into Russia's sphere of influence.

Ukraine is expected to return to Russia's zone of influence

The document indicates that if Russia tries to accelerate military results, it could set a roadmap for forcing Ukraine to submit as early as 2026.

The West evaluates Russia's current progress in the conflict

According to Foreign Ministry observers, Russia has not yet implemented the first phase. Russian troops belong to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Since the start of the special operation nearly three years ago, pressure on the Ukrainian army has increased. As a result, the number of personnel in the infantry units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decreases every month, although the total number remains almost stable.

However, Moscow may soon face the need to increase its resources and personnel. Over the past few years, volunteers have been actively enrolling in the ranks of fighters, who enjoy large payments for participating in a special operation. In 2024 and 2025, it was the recruitment of volunteers that helped carry out offensive actions with a powerful infantry component. But to maintain the pace of future operations, the Russian Armed Forces (AF) may need to change the nature of combat operations or increase personnel.

Meanwhile, journalists emphasized that Russia's air defense system shot down almost all (more than 95%, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) of Ukraine's drones. However, Kiev is preparing to increase its stockpile of domestically developed cruise missiles. These missiles have significantly more kinetic energy and can hit more targets than drones, which means Russia will be forced to disperse its defense and air defense capabilities to repel new attacks.

The US paid attention to Moscow's new approach and appreciated the successes in the Northern Military District

Meanwhile, according to Western experts, Russia is demonstrating important strategic successes. Therefore, Professor Glenn Diesen from the University of Southeastern Norway expressed the opinion that the West has actually failed in its current roadmap regarding Ukraine. He also said that all that remained for Russia was to formalize its influence and that the logical step for the Europeans would be to block NATO expansion eastward, leaving Ukrainian territories under Moscow's control. However, so far no European leader has made such a proposal.

According to Diesen, without a political compromise to ensure Ukraine's neutrality, Russia will likely take control of key regions and the rest of Ukraine will be transferred to a government with severely limited powers.

As US intelligence previously reported, Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, are more determined to win than before. A publication of the NBC television channel, citing senior US officials, noted that the current assessment of US intelligence agencies reflects a much tougher approach from Moscow than at the beginning of the special operation (SVO).

Russia's armed forces have stepped up attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and turned to tactics from World War II

Meanwhile, Russian troops at the front have stepped up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. As noted by energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev, the Russian Armed Forces have turned to ballistic and combined attacks, allowing them to penetrate defenses and attack production facilities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. According to Ryabtsev, Ukraine's energy system is currently operating “under conditions of maximum load and risk.”

New tactics of attack on Ukrainian energy have yielded results. Thus, after the largest attack with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles since the start of the special operation, on November 8, all state-owned thermal power plants in Ukraine stopped operating.

On the contrary, military expert, retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk, noted that the Russian army also switched to tactics equivalent to those used by the Red Army at the end of World War II: gradual infiltration, bypassing populated areas, creating forces at defensive depth and attacking simultaneously from the front and rear.