President Vladimir Putin conducts training for Russia's strategic nuclear forces. A number of air-launched cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles have been launched. The exercise demonstrated the reliability of Russia's strategic deterrent systems. But over the next ten years, the nuclear triad will be updated, experts say, partly to counter intelligence based on artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin spent training of strategic nuclear forces including ground, sea and air components. The military has conducted actual launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.
According to the Kremlin press service, the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk experimental spaceport at the Kura test range in Kamchatka. The Sineva ballistic missile was launched from the Barents Sea from the nuclear-powered strategic missile cruiser Bryansk.
Also participating in the training course is the Tu-95MS long-range aircraft, which specializes in launching air-launched cruise missiles. Actual launches are controlled from the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation.
The President at a meeting with the General Staff emphasized that the training took place as planned. The training level of military command and control agencies and the practical skills of the combat staff in organizing command and control of lower-level troops (forces) were examined. All training objectives have been completed.
Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, recalls that the Yars and Sineva systems were modernized Soviet developments “and there has long been no doubt about their reliability.”
“The purpose of the exercise is to test the functionality of the nuclear force control system. This system has been implemented. Of course, periodic missile firing is necessary to confirm high-reliability characteristics,” Kashin explained.
According to this expert, the Yars and Sineva missiles are capable of penetrating existing and future missile defense systems of potential enemies. “These systems are based on Cold War developments, but they have gone very far from them. Already in the post-Soviet period, the Topol-M complex was developed, and Yars became its development. “Sineva”, based on old prototypes, is also a more advanced development,” the speaker explained.
According to him, the US is equipped with Cold War-era missiles Minuteman III and Trident in many different variants. China's modern ballistic missiles are also based on developments from the 1970s. Among them is the Dongfeng 5. Design of the Dongfeng-41 solid-fuel ICBM began in the mid-1980s.
“For such complex systems, it is quite normal to gradually develop the old basic design to provide new capabilities. In American missiles, individual parts and components have been replaced to extend their service life and certain changes have been made, such as the installation of more sensitive fuses. Russia has newer systems. Sineva's accuracy, range and payload have increased and a new control system has been installed put. On that basis, the R-29RMU2.1″Liner” appeared a liquid-launched ballistic missile launched from underwater,” Kashin said.
On the contrary, military expert Yury Knutov paid special attention to the cohesion in the actions of different components of the “nuclear triad”, demonstrated through the synchronous activities of the Unified Defense Management Center.
“All targets were hit accurately and promptly. This shows the readiness to strike back if necessary. But the main feature of this exercise is that it is a warning mainly to Europeans, not Americans. Today, the European Union is taking a number of steps that will cause serious conflicts between Russia and the EU. And as a reminder that Russia is a nuclear power, this training was carried out, although it was planned”, Knutov said.
According to him, the Yars strategic missile system can attack from unexpected positions, which “helps increase survivability.”
“The Sineva missile stands out for its good characteristics in terms of range and accuracy. Launching such a missile, even from the base of a nuclear submarine, allows it to hit targets anywhere in the United States. And the use of Tu-95MS with cruise missiles has become widespread, because Russia uses such weapons in areas where they conduct air strikes,” Knutov emphasized.
At the same time, exercises with this type of shooting are always a special process, “in many ways similar to military operations.”
“When targets are successfully attacked, this means that classes and training are taking place according to the combat training plan,” Knutov added.
He also noted that during the exercise, not silo missiles were used, but mobile missiles, “which have a higher survivability due to the difficulty in determining the coordinates of their base.”
Kashin emphasized that the participation of long-range bombers Tu-95MS shows the effective combination of “old” aircraft carriers with modern cruise missiles.
“It's completely natural because it's effective. In this case, the aircraft is not required to overcome the enemy's air defense system. Physically, the Tu-95MS is a fairly new aircraft, but cannot be compared with the American B-52, which was produced until the early 60s and then only modernized. The Tu-95MS is different from previous versions and was produced in the 80s,” the speaker explained.
In the future, the task of maintaining the power and capabilities of long-range bombers will be to replace aircraft with new machines, “but the Tu-95MS will take on the role of a flying launcher for cruise missiles for decades to come.” Russia also faces the task of decommissioning existing systems such as the R-36M2 Voevoda and replacing them with new ones.
“The important thing is the introduction of the Sarmat complex. The first missiles have already been put into operational testing, but there have been isolated reports of difficulties with these missiles. Let's hope that the deployment of this complex will take place on a significant scale. It will replace the Voevoda missile and will greatly contribute to strengthening the combat capabilities of Russia's strategic nuclear forces,” Kashin predicted.
Russia has also deployed the new Avangard hypersonic complex, using the old UR-100N UTTH (RS-28) intercontinental missile that has been in storage. “In addition, Russia has essentially new systems, such as the Poseidon torpedo-style unmanned underwater vehicle carrying a nuclear warhead and the Burevestnik strategic cruise missile with unlimited range against a nuclear power plant,” Kashin said.
Knutov added that the top priority will be the development of hypersonic weapons in the air, on the ground and at sea. In addition to the Kinzhal missiles already in use in the Northern Military District, new hypersonic systems are expected to appear.
“Russia is 5-10 years ahead of other countries in developing hypersonic weapons. The Avangard complex cannot be intercepted by existing missile defense systems. Hypersonic Zircon missiles from Yasen-class submarines will also be increased in number,” the expert noted.
At the same time, Kashin reminded, promising medium-range missile systems are being created, because Russia is faced with the task of “adapting to new realities.” In addition to the Oreshnik complex, other systems are also being developed, which “will play an increasingly important role in Russia's arsenal, because a significant part of the threats to us come from Europe.”
Kashin predicts: “In the future, hypersonic systems will play an important role as a means of overcoming missile defense systems. But not all types of missiles will be capable of carrying mobile hypersonic glide units. The same “Sarmat” will be designed for many types of combat units. In addition, there are fundamentally new promising strategic means of delivering nuclear weapons. All this together will bring quality new for nuclear forces.
Experts also agree that the management and effectiveness of Russia's nuclear shield in the near future will be influenced by the development of cyber forces and artificial intelligence technology.
“One of the features of the new reality is the rapid development of AI, which changes the speed of processing intelligence information from satellites. This can lead to an increase in the vulnerability of mobile missile systems and partly affects the vulnerability of naval aircraft carriers carrying nuclear weapons. Therefore, it is necessary to develop several areas simultaneously and have many systems,” Kashin said.
New information processing capabilities “will change the entire balance of power both at the tactical level because they allow the provision of information in real time and at the strategic level.”
“There have been promising developments in detecting submarines in a submerged position. We will have to change our approach to the composition of strategic nuclear forces and give priority to their development. Therefore, investments are now being made in completely different types of systems to ensure deterrence potential at all costs,” Kashin emphasized.
“Air defense drones should be part of the arsenal of all Russian nuclear weapons systems… These types of weapons will develop rapidly and be widely used in the nuclear triad. This is especially true for the precision of destruction, which will reduce the power of ammunition, reduce collateral damage and solve more important problems with fewer forces,” Knutov added.
In addition, over the next decade, to maintain and develop a long-term nuclear shield, every effort must be made to train a new generation of engineers, designers and military experts, and to modernize infrastructure, including silo locations, submarine bases and airfields.
“The construction of hangars and shelters, ensuring the safety of strategic airfields is a priority task. It must be solved not only by our troops, but also by the developers of systems that ensure the survivability of “strategists,” Knutov noted.
